Annex 1

NWP. 2011: progress and achievements

FDP: in blue; RDP: in green

Deterministic fcst models

EPS

Data Assimilation

Verification

Comment

HMC

Operational forecasting over the Sochi area with COSMO-2.2 km.

A regional 3D-Var was developed by adaptation of the global HMC data assimilation technology (using stretched geometry). First runs with resolution 7 km at the outer loop and 15 km at the inner loop at the center of the domain.

Pre-processing of Russian radar data for meso-scale verification.

Italy (ARPA SIMC)

Implementation of the first prototype of the 7-km ensemble (SOCHMEL7), running on a regular basis since 19/12/2011.

Provision of LBC for the 2.2 km ensemble to MetRu.

Provision of fields to the Russian forecasters.

SOCHMEL7 will run up to 31/3/2012; then, it will start again in Autumn.

Transfer to FROST-2014 server in grib1 format.

DWD

Canada

Automated system to downscale GEM from global model (33 km) to 1 km (with proposed 1-km grid configuation) has been set up and tested. A single run test was performed over the Sochi region, following the protocol agreed among the participants.

No work has been done for this component. It is unlikely that we will be able to run a mesoscale EPS for FROST.

The upper-air and surface initial conditions used in the tests performed in 2011 were obtained from direct downscaling of ECs current operational regional forecasting system (15km).

Progress have been recently been achieved with a 10km 4DVAR assimilation system. And EC scientists are confident that this approach will be used for the upcoming season (2012-2013).

Surface initial conditions should be provided by a 100m external surface system. This aspect should be ready for the upcoming season.

No progress on this aspect.

Ready for real-time set-up. Need to incorporate high-resolution snow analysis and other surface analyses from the 100m external system. Option exists to replace global-33km driving model with 10-km model (with 3D-VAR or 4DVAR analysis)

Austria (ZAMG)

No input till winter 2012/2013

NOAA

Satellite-based snow cover and snow water equivalent retrievals over the Black Sea region have been routinely evaluated and archived. The dataset is available upon request.

First tests of the new 0.5 km resolution snow cover product from VIIRS NPP have been conducted.

Accuracy estimates are performed through comparison of derived snow properties with snow observations at ground stations

HIRLAM

GLAMEPS semi operational.

Technical work in setting up Harmonie to run in ensemble mode finished.

First test with HarmonEPS for the area of Sochi run sucessfully

NCAR

China


Annex 2

NWP. 2012: milestones

FDP: in blue, RDP: in green

Deterministic fcst models

EPS

Data Assimilation

Verification

Timing

(months)

Comment

Russia (HMC)

Attempts to introduce data assimilation into Sochi-area COSMO based forecasting.

Regional 3D-Var based cyclic data assimilation scheme over the Sochi area.

Operational meso-scale verification package.

Interfacing of radar data for the mesoscale verification package.

To be specified

Italy (ARPA SIMC)

Consolidation of SOCHMEL7.

Generation of new products.

Generation of point forecasts (meteograms) with dissemination in xml format.

Generation of products from the combination of different LAM-EPS

Subject to observation availability, the performance of SOCHMEL7 will be assessed

DWD

COSMO-RU (7 km) with data assimilation for winter 2011/2012, 2012/2013 and 2013/2014 in real time at DWD; transfer of selected forecast fields to Russia; same set-up as operational COSMO-RU (which is based on interpolated GME-analysis).

Operational mesoscale verification package as well as subjective evaluation by forecasters. Main emphasis on near-surface weather conditions.

Canada

Items to work on:

nesting down to 250 m (very achievable on new EC supercomputers)

install this system in real time

It is not expected that any progress will be achieved for this aspect.

1: 3DVAR or 4DVAR for 10-km LAM (to replace Global-33km as driving model)

2: 100 m from external land surface modeling system

3: high-resolution snow analysis

If data from the various observation networks over the Sochi area, and if resources are available, objective evaluation will be performed.

Austria

(ZAMG)

Setup of Post-processing domain in ALADIN-LAEF for Sochi (Summer 2012)

Implementation of ALADIN-LAEF data flow to the project server (Autumn 2012)

NOAA

Routine generation of 0.5km resolution daily maps of snow cover from VIIRS NPP over the study area. Will work on an improved algorithm for snow depth and snow water equivalent retrievals from satellite observations in the microwave. Will generate snow cover distribution monthly climatology for the Sochi region.

HIRLAM

Providing GLAMEPS results routinely.

Run HarmonEPS experiments for the area of Sochi.

Calibration of EPS forecasts.

NCAR

China

Switzerland (university of Basel)

High resolution (1 km) fog forecast for Sochi region,

Eventually semi-operational (depending on cpu-availability).

Extensive postprocessing for selected locations, and point forecast products.

Objective verification if observations are available

FMI

Harmonie with horizontal spacing of 2.5km 4 runs/day


Annex 3

WG-2 (NWP). 2013: milestones

NB: RDP only is relevant for 2013.

#

Deterministic fcst models

EPS

Data Assimilation

Verification

Timing (months)

Comment

Russia (HMC)

Testing the operational forecasting technology.

Operational regional 3D-Var based cyclic data assimilation scheme over the Sochi area.

Operational online mesoscale verification package.

Italy (ARPA SIMC)

Assistance to MetRu for running the 2.2 km ensemble.

DWD

Canada

Produce specialized output fields (images) and time series (meteograms) at points of interest

Other adjustments to the model configuration and / or to the real time nesting setup are to be expected (unknown at this time).

None.

Minor adjustments are to be expected for this component (unknown at this time).

Same comment as for 2012.

Austria

(ZAMG)

NOAA

Development and testing of the fractional snow cover product. Experimental generation of the fractional snow cover data with data from METOP AVHRR, NPP VIIR and MSG SEVIRI

TIGGE

Combination of global EPS and LAM-EPS output.

HIRLAM

Run HarmonEPS for the area of Sochi and provide output

Switzerland (university of Basel)

High resolution (1 km) fog forecast for Sochi region,

Eventually semi-operational (depending on cpu-availability)

Extensive postprocessing for selected locations, and point forecast products as on meteoblue.com (if observations become available)

Objective verification if observations are available

FMI

NCAR

China