MAIN WEATHER AND CLIMATE TRAITS IN THE NORTHEN HEMISPHERE AS OF FEBRUARY 2024

Air temperature

New air temperature maxima that were set in the ETR at the end of January continued to come forth in the first decade of February: they were measured in the North Caucasus, the Black Earth region, Crimea, the Lower Volga and Donbass. Air temperature anomalies were negative in the north of the ETR only and positive everywhere else, up to +6° or more. The weather in the Urals and Western Siberia was even warmer than usual, with the temperatures up to or higher than +8…10°.

At the beginning of the second decade, the extremely hot weather with new daily maxima still persisted in the south of the ETR, but then, the colds came both there and to most of the country, and new record-breaking minima were now recorded in the republics of Altai and Khakassia located in the south of Siberia, in the Omsk and Novosibirsk Regions, and in the Krasnoyarsk Territory. At the same time, the heat was ousted far to the west of the country, and to Taimyr.

In the third decade, the heat advanced along the Arctic coast as well as to the north, north-west and centre of the ETR where the weather became so warm that even new temperature maxima were reported at the end of the month. But the rest of Russia was still frozen by bitter colds creating new temperature minima.

As a result, the monthly-averaged air temperatures were 2-4 or more degrees higher than normal in the central, western and southern ETR regions or 2-8 degrees higher on the Arctic coast and in the north of the Urals, exhibited high negative anomalies from -2° to -4° or lower throughout all Southern Siberia and the north of the Far East, and were normal in the south of the Far East as well as in the northern and eastern regions of the ETR. The average February temperature reached extreme values neither in the whole Russia, nor in any Federal districts, just hitting the end of the top ten high-ranked positions in theSouthern Federal District only.

The trends averaged over all winter months were very similar: this winter was 1-2 or more degrees warmer than usual in the southern regions of the ETR, even warmer (with +2-4° anomalies) in the north of the Urals, in Taimyr and Novaya Zemlya, but colder than usual in Central Russia, in the north-west, north and east of the ETR, in the south of Siberia, in Yakutia and almost everywhere in the Far Eastern region with the exception of Chukotka and part of Primorye. The averaged winter temperatures were among the top ten high-ranked ones in the Southern Federal District only, and were close to normal both in all other federal districts, and over the entire territory of Russia.

The weather in Mongolia, as well as in the north and east of China, was cold on most days of the month, resulting in subnormal monthly-averaged air temperatures. Very cold weather in Mongolia led to massive loss of cattle in excess of three million heads. On the contrary, this month was very warm in neighbouring Japan: the monthly averages were two or more degrees higher than normal, and the month was deemed the second warmest February in the meteorological chronicle of the country.

The monthly-averaged temperature in South-East Asia, and in India alike, was about normal.

This February was very warm in the Near and Middle East. The monthly-averaged temperatures were 2-4° higher than normal in Turkey, in the Levant countries and in the north of Iran, and about normal in the rest of the region. The thermometers in Saudi Arabia displayed negative values on some days.

Even though the month in Central Asia was relatively warm, the frosts in the Karaganda and East-Kazakhstan Regions in the east of Kazakhstan were as cold as -40…-45° sometimes.

The weather in North Africa was unseasonably hot: in the countries along the Mediterranean Sea and the Atlantic Ocean, as well as in some countries in the centre of the region, this February was 1-2 or more degrees warmer than usual and, as a result, became the second warmest after the record-breaking February 1990.

This year, Europe was granted with a very warm February; only February 1990 was even warmer, albeit that by mere 0.1°. The monthly-averaged temperatures were 2-6 or more degrees higher than normal almost across the entire continent. New temperature maxima were recorded in Austria, Greece, Romania, Bulgaria, Albania, Italy and Belarus. The thermometer readings rose to +20° sometimes, and the weather on some days resembled the one in April rather than in winter. This February was the warmest in the history of meteorological observations in Germany and Switzerland, and the second warmest, in the UK.

Positive anomalies of air temperature were even higher on the North American continent, namely, in the USA and in Canada: in either country, this February was the second warmest in the history of observations, with February 1954 at the first place in the USA, and February 2010, in Canada. The monthly-averaged anomalies of air temperature in both countries were +2…6° or higher. In the US states of Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa and Missouri, this February was the warmest on record. Subnormal air temperatures were observed in parts of the west coasts of these countries, as well as in the Caribbean.

The weather in the Arctic turned out to be very warm, with the monthly-averaged temperature at the second position in the ranking list after the leading one in 2018, and with new temperature maxima recorded in many observation stations.

As to the entire North Hemisphere, the average temperature reproduced the record-breaking value set in 2016 (to an accuracy of 0.1°C).

Winter 2023/2024 was the warmest in the history of regular meteorological observations on the planet since 1891, also the warmest in the US, in Canada and Morocco, the second warmest in the Arctic, in Europe, North Africa and Japan, and the third warmest in Germany. The weather in winter was the warmest in Morocco, and noticeably warmer than usual (by 2-6 or more degrees) in the Near and Middle East, in Central Asia, in the south-east of Europe, in the US, in Canada, and in certain regions of the Arctic and of North Africa.

In Moscow, the average temperature in February was -4.5°, with an anomaly of +1.4°, and winter was 0.7° colder than normal.

 Sea Surface Temperature

 The Atlantic and Pacific oceans in the Northern Hemisphere continued their "boiling": the monthly-averaged SST reached an absolute maximum for the fourteenth month in a row in the former one, and for the fifth month, in the latter.

El Niño was weakening. Anomalies higher than 2° were no longer measured, only those higher than 1°. It is expected that El Niño will cease to exist by the end of spring, will be followed by a short neutral phase, and then, by La Niña, a cold episode of the Southern Oscillation.

High positive anomalies (greater than +1°) in the Atlantic Ocean occupied its entire eastern part from the equator to the temperate latitudes, including the marginal European seas. Small water areas of subnormal SST were located off the coast of North America, and in the Greenland Sea.

High positive anomalies in the Pacific Ocean were located alongside the equator (El Niño), and along the coasts of Eurasia and North America, forming a narrow strip in the latter case. Small water areas of positive anomalies were also found at the temperate latitudes. The water in the Sea of Okhotsk and off the coast of Kamchatka was colder than normal.

 Precipitation

 In the ETR, the monthly precipitation totals were normal in most entities of the Federation, and subnormal solely in the Murmansk and Arkhangelsk Regions as well as in the Nenets Autonomous District in the north, and in Crimea as well as in some North Caucasian republics in the south. At the same time, the normal values in the Kaliningrad Region, in the Black Earth and Lower Volga regions as well as in Kalmykia were exceeded by 1.5 or more times. New maxima of precipitation totals were set on some days, e.g., in Saint-Petersburg and in Krasnaya Polyana.

The precipitation amounts were normal in the Urals and in most of Siberia, 1.5 times the normal values in the Novosibirsk Region, Altai Territory and Republic of Tyva, twice above normal in the Republic of Altai, and subnormal in the Irkutsk Region. At the end of the month, heavy snowfalls took place in the north of Siberia including the Yamal-Nenets Autonomous District and Taimyr.

Precipitation was surprisingly scant in the Far East Federal District where it was subnormal everywhere save for Trans-Baikal, the Amur Region and Kolyma, notably, twice less than normal in Primorye, in the north of the Khabarovsk Territory, in Chukotka and in Kamchatka. In mid-February, new maxima of daily precipitation totals were recorded in Primorye and in the south of the Khabarovsk Territory.

In East Asia, a lot of precipitation went to the eastern and northern provinces of China, and to South Korea where heavy snowfalls at the end of the month increased the snow cover height up to 20-40 cm, or to 50 cm in the mountains. Precipitation was scarce in the north-east, west and south-west of China, and normal in Japan.

Almost no precipitation was observed in the countries of South-East Asia with the exception of the Philippines where torrential downpours at the beginning and in the middle of the month caused floods and landslides, and led to fatalities.

No rain fell in most of India, except for incessant showers and snowfalls in the north of the country and in neighbouring Pakistan in the last week of February. In the latter territories, dozens of people were killed, and huge damage to the infrastructure was inflicted.

The weather in Central Asia was dry.

Abundant precipitation exceeding the normal figures by 2-3 times went to the countries of the Near and Middle East. Snowfalls in the north of Saudi Arabia created a transient snow cover. In the middle of the month, heavy rains were pouring for several successive days in the southern regions of Turkey; during these days, up to 280 mm of rainwater fell in the resort of Antalya where a number of city quarters and tourist spots were deluged by flood waters and, as a result, classes in schools were cancelled, and hospital services were interrupted. In the south-east of Iran, the rapid rise of temperature as well as the melting of snow in the mountains led to floods at the end of the month.

The weather in North Africa was dry almost everywhere; rains were only observed in a number of regions on the coasts of the Mediterranean Sea and of the Atlantic Ocean.

Central, Eastern and Northern Europe received normal precipitation; in some places, the daily amounts reached 50 mm, causing floods. The German Weather Service reported that this winter was unprecedented as regards the precipitation totals in the country. The south of the European continent including Spain, Greece and the Balkan countries received very scarce precipitation in February. The drought in Spanish Catalonia continued after it had started as early as in the previous year which was deemed the second driest in the history of the region. The Catalan Government imposed water consumption restrictions; as a result, the city fountains and beach showers were shut down in Barcelona.

This February, precipitation in most of the North American continent was subnormal. The Arctic and eastern regions of Canada, as well as Alaska and the Pacific coast of the USA were the only territories where it was normal, or above-normal in some places. In California, showers caused flooding of such severity that had not been reported there for nearly a hundred years. As a result, houses of owned by celebrities were destroyed or inundated with water or mud in the most prestigious areas of Malibu and Beverly Hills. In Mexico, the drought persisted regardless of heavy rains in the central part of the country, and the water levels in water storages fell below the all-time lows.

In Moscow, 67 mm of precipitation fell in February, amounting to one and a half the normal monthly quantity and providing the eighth result in the ranking list compiled since 1891. During this winter, 213 mm of atmospheric moisture accumulated, so that winter 2023/2024 became the third wettest in the meteorological chronicle of the capital. The winter precipitation figures in Moscow were even higher in 1966 and 2018 only.